Covid19 on the brink of #1 US killer

How many people will die in the US from covid19, tomorrow and for the next 18 days?

Red (deaths) and green (new case count). The dates are offset by 18 days, which is also one major division. Notice how Nov 15, a prediction date, is further right in green (new cases) than red (deaths). Note how the scales of the y-axis are consistent with 1.6% deaths per new case. The red curve catches up to the green curve. The deaths for the next 18 days are to all intents and purposes pre-ordained.

In my previous work, including predicting covid19 deaths for the past 11 days accurately, I have shown the 18 day lag between new case count and death.

In this one relatively unconventional graph you can see red (deaths) and green (new cases) represented in their correlated, caused form. We will…

Larry Tarof

Larry is a semiconductor physicist by day and a musician (piano/voice/guitar, “Dr L’s Music”) evenings/weekends. He should someday update his LinkedIn profile.

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